Author: Chet

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Seeing more ghosts

As the late, very great, Richard Feynman put it:

But even today I meet lots of people who sooner or later get me into a conversation about UFO’s, or astrology, or some form of mysticism, expanded consciousness, new types of awareness, ESP, and so forth. And I’ve concluded that it’s not a scientific world.

No, and it seems, sometimes, to be moving the other way. We’ll be bleeding patients and burning witches any day now.

For example, just yesterday, “Does ESP Exist? 11 Premonitions That Came True,” appeared in The Epoch Times (in my Flipboard Science category, of all things).

We read,

Though some psychologists and natural scientists remain skeptical, many agree telepathic abilities and related phenomena exist.

Chris Carter, an Oxford University-educated author of “Science and Psychic Phenomena: The Fall of the House of Skeptics,” cited two surveys in an article he published in Epoch Times last year that show a majority of scientists believe in such abilities.

One survey was conducted among more than 500 scientists; 56 percent said extra-sensory perception (ESP) is “an established fact” or a “likely possibility.” The other survey was conducted among more than 1,000 scientists; 67 percent said it is an established fact or likely possibility.

I rechecked the date on the article. It wasn’t April 1st.

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The Ghosts of Orientation

More on the wonders of orientation. You’d think it would be simple: take in information, form hypotheses, test in the real world, revise. The scientific method, as taught in high schools and laid out in Conceptual Spiral as a model for forming and correcting orientation.

Unfortunately, when human beings get involved, things aren’t so simple. The idea of orientation steering observation to see only what it wants to see, of avoiding, ignoring, or explaining away observations that conflict with existing orientation is well known. Google “confirmation bias,” for example, to see some fascinating research on this subject. In an extreme form, it becomes “incestuous amplification,” a term coined by Chuck Spinney years ago to refer to rowing oneself over a waterfall while explaining away the mists looming ahead, the roar of the falls, and the frantic screams of onlookers.

Typically we think of incestuous amplification as misinterpreting the data we find, shoehorning it to fit a preconceived and tightly held conviction. But even when there is no signal present, orientation can sometimes find one, anyway. Think castles in the clouds, constellations, creationism, inferring what the boss didn’t actually want, and so on. It’s also a occupational hazard of counterintelligence.

There’s a name for this phenomenon: apophenia, and a recent article in The Observer, “Why we can ‘see’ the house that looks like Hitler,” by Vaughn Bell, relates the case of a person who lived out his life believing that he could hear voices of ghosts in radio static. You might think that only people with mental problems fall prey to this effect, but research shows that we all have this tendency, to some degree. Did you ever try to play Beatles’s 45s backwards?

Statisticians, of course, create beautiful and complex mathematics to try to answer the question, “Is there really anything there, or could it just be happening by chance?” If you flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, is it a plugged nickel? Even if you can’t apply statistical formulae to your problem, it’s helpful to stop and ask yourself, “Is there really anything here? Could this all be a mistake?” Might save a lot of marriages.

To put this into the OODA loop sketch, we’re talking about the implicit guidance and control link between orientation and observation. But it’s a little more than that. Not only is orientation steering observation, but it is locked into a pattern of interpreting the results to support existing beliefs, and sometimes it will find what it needs, whether it’s there or not.  As John wrote in the penultimate chart of his final briefing:

Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window. Also note how the entire “loop” (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.

[All of Boyd’s briefings are available from our Articles page.]

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Unconscious orientation?

A study from the University of Arizona suggests that your brain takes in and processes information, even though you may not be consciously aware of much of the results.

As Mary Peterson, Professor of Psychology and Director of UA’s Cognitive Science Program, described the results:

Many, many theorists assume that because it takes a lot of energy for brain processing, that the brain is only going to spend time processing what you’re ultimately going to perceive, but in fact the brain is deciding what you’re going to perceive, and it’s processing all of the information and then it’s determining what’s the best interpretation.

This is a window into what the brain is doing all the time. It’s always sifting through a variety of possibilities and finding the best interpretation for what’s out there. And the best interpretation may vary with the situation.

Note the reference to orientation implicitly controlling observation –“the brain is deciding what you’re going to perceive.” It is possible, although the article doesn’t address this question, that the “non-perceived” information may be stored somewhere in your brain and may influence your orientation, that it may affect your actions.

The study also points out that the brain registers the presence of external objects in about .4 seconds, which may provide insight into the conditions necessary for operating inside an opponent’s OODA loop.

[Original article, “Your brain sees things you don’t,” on EarthSky.org, 13 Nov 2013.]

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Roll over, Beethoven

And tell Deming the news.

I don’t know what to say. As long-time readers of this blog, both of you, may recall, I’ve tried to cut Marissa Mayer some slack.  She inherited a difficult situation as the new CEO of Yahoo, and new leaders sometimes do dramatic things to signal the start of a new way. Patton was a master of this.

But now, she’s apparently decided to implement the worst leadership idea imaginable, one that even I can’t explain away. According to Kara Swisher’s article in All Things D, “‘Because Marissa Said So’ — Yahoos Bristle at Mayer’s QPR Ranking System and ‘Silent Layoffs,’” she’s introduced a ranking system for employees that forces managers to place their people on a bell-type curve. This means that some people are going to be ranked as sub-standard — possibly leading to being fired — no matter how good their performance actually is. In other words, if you, as a manager, have done the hard work of building a great team, you’re still going to have to offer up some percentage of your people.

What this does is introduce conflict into the team as people compete with their teammates not to end up in one of the bottom rankings. It puts a big premium on gamesmanship, brown-nosing, and in the current job market, maybe even sabotage. In other words, it’s a world class Einheit eraser, and without Einheit, you’re never going to have a world beating team. Well, you might if you choose your competition carefully.

To make matters worse, she doesn’t seem to be applying this same mechanism to her own team. As one employee put it:

Will the ‘occasionally misses’ classification apply to L2 and L3 execs also? At every goals meeting, we find senior staff who missed even the 70% goals. Thus, by definition, they should be classified as ‘occasionally misses.’ Two such classifications, and that person should be let go, amiright? How about we set an example for the rest of the company and can a few of the top execs who miss (or who sandbag their goals to make sure they ‘meet’)?

Which reminds me of Boyd’s concept of “moral isolation,” which he recommended you apply to your adversaries and not do their job for them on yourself:

Morally, adversaries isolate themselves when they visibly improve their well being to the detriment of others (i.e. their allies, the uncommitted, etc.) by violating codes of conduct or behavior patterns that they profess to uphold or others expect them to uphold.  (Strategic Game 47)

What about Deming? Oh yeah. Some of you may dimly recall his Fourteen Points. Here’s number 11:
Remove barriers that rob people in management and in engineering of their right to pride of workmanship. This means, inter alia, abolishment of the annual or merit rating and of management by objective. (emphasis added).
And his reasoning was virtually the same as mine: you kill any chance at unity and eventually the organization descends into a pit of backstabbing and CYA.
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Acquisition reform? It’s simple

Here’s the latest from USAF Lt Col Dan Ward, the guru of the “fast, inexpensive, simple, tiny” movement in US acquisition reform. He begins by noting that while car manufacturers are reducing the time it takes to design and build their products, military contractors are barreling in the opposite direction.

In “Changing Acquisition Culture: What & How,” Colonel Ward explains this phenomenon and offers several concrete suggestions for reversing the trend. This is an area that I’ve worked in a little, and my colleague, Chuck Spinney, has worked in a lot. Think you’ll find Col Ward’s ideas interesting.

Published by the Center for National Policy in Washington, D.C.

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Formlessness in space and time

In chapter six of the Sun Tzu text, we read:

Therefore, when you induce others to construct a formation while you yourself are formless, then you are concentrated while the opponent is divided. (Cleary trans., p. 106)

Boyd loved this concept. He called it the principle of dispersion, parodying the Army’s emphasis on concentration. The idea is that the opponent has to be on guard everywhere, while you know what you’re doing. Boyd took it even further: You can disperse not only in space, but combine it with dispersion in time, so that the opponent cannot recover from the first attack before the second is upon him. And the third. And the fourth. Think of how you reacted the last time things started happening faster than you could cope. Against a linear formation, you don’t need every attack to succeed. Often one will be enough, if it can penetrate and cause the opponent’s formation to begin to collapse. The next group of forces streaming in can complete the job. Boyd called this “operating inside the OODA loop.”

Where else do we see formations? How about football? What would Boyd’s principle of dispersion / operating inside the OODA loop look like there? For a great example, check out “Ditka vs. Ryan: The Feud That Fueled the ’85 Chicago Bears” (in the print edition as “Hate, Jealousy, and Da Bears,” p. D10) by Rich Cohen in Friday’s Wall St. J. (paywall). This should give you the idea:

“As organized and experienced as that group of players were from the Chargers, they’d seen nothing like it,” [Chicago safety Doug] Plank said. “Mad dogs. Wild men. Coming from every side. A jail break. By the end, Dan Fouts did not know where to look: Should he try to find the open man downfield, or should he simply brace for impact?”

It was this confusion, planted in the mind of the quarterback, that made the 46 [the Bears’ code name for this type of defense] hum.

When briefing the section of Patterns of Conflict that deals with Clausewitz and Jomini, Boyd would critique these guys for their emphasis on order. He usually told the story of how despite this obsession, Jomini almost discovered the idea of operating inside the OODA loop. Jomini had written of a cavalry attack, where the usual tight formation broke down, and in the resulting confusion, the attackers broke through and won. Jomini concluded that the attack had succeeded in spite of the breakdown in the formation. Boyd said, “No! It succeeded because of it.” The Union attack on Missionary Ridge, November 25, 1863, is another example. In each of these cases (and many others) there was confusion, and one side could exploit it before the other could figure out what was happening.

So it isn’t that there is a balance or trade-off between structure / form and agility / formlessness. Formlessness, as the Sun Tzu text insists, creates its own form, and as Boyd noted, this often happens in time as well as in space.

Incidentally, the idea that only one attack has to succeed also carries over into football. Here’s Plank again:

“Football is chess,” Plank said. “You can capture all my pawns, but if I tip over that king [the opposing quarterback], I win.”

[By this way, perhaps this will answer the question of why Ender’s Game is so popular among the maneuver warfare crowd.]

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You build snowmobiles; snowmobiles build you

Your DNA is actually an on-going project of building snowmobiles, according to an article in this weekend’s Wall St. J. (paywall):

So stretches of DNA can be copied in particular cells and then pasted elsewhere, producing a novel DNA sequence … Transpositions also occur in the brain. Fred Gage and Alysson Muotri of the Salk Institute and colleagues first showed that human transposons are activated in stem cells in the brain around the time they are becoming neurons. In other words, when you make a new neuron, that old boring DNA sequence that you inherited isn’t good enough. Thus, the brain is a mosaic of neurons with different DNA sequences. “Genes Often Get Shuffled in Our DNA Deck,” by Robert M. Sapolsky

I don’t know what this means, but it is absolutely fascinating. As the article mentions, the vast, vast majority of snowmobiles don’t work, but a vital few do. Plants are especially good at this game, and bacteria, the most successful life form on the planet — you are, basically, just a life support mechanism for a bunch of bacteria — are masters.

 

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Why we need the Army, part I

This is the first in a series of posts by guest commentators to answer my complaint that I hadn’t heard a coherent, logical answer to the question of why we still need the Army.

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Yes, we do need an Army
by Lucretius

While my answer may not be as coherent as Mr. Richards would prefer, the USAF, USN, and USMC bring assets to the fight that while together may succeed in meeting the mission; without one of them, we may not succeed as quickly or as effectively in countering the threat(s) to our foreign interests or homeland.

We have instead created a system of redundancies and bloated administrative processes which bog down both the definition of the threat(s) and how to address it/them. Our entire military is shackled by a congress that has few members (or their extended family members) who have worn the uniform which frankly has resulted in DoD being curtailed by political (hidden and otherwise) agendas, vagaries, and shifting bipartisan bickering. Continue reading →

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Living with Amazon, part II

Last post noted that independent booksellers are holding their own against Amazon, and even increasing in numbers. They couldn’t do this if they were just more expensive versions of Amazon — sell a small selection of the same books, just at a higher price.

Here’s the problem in a nutshell: What Amazon’s doing is working great. So you have to find something that Amazon isn’t already doing, which is sell a huge range of stuff, deliver it quickly, take it back if you don’t like it, and recommend other stuff based on your buying and browsing history. And — let me emphasize that — and for which customers will pay enough money to give you a viable business venture.

Continue reading →